Discussion: So the frontal boundary associated with Beryl the other night pushed through NJ and became stationary just offshore for most of yesterday. Early this morning, it was pushed backwards by high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean (Bermuda high setting up). Therefore, it came into NJ from the SE and is now advancing northward through NJ. So far, the rainfall associated with this retrograding frontal boundary today (Friday) has targeted Cape May county with over 4, possibly 5 inches, in some spots of total rainfall with more to come. Most of SENJ is over an inch of rain with a steep cut-off into I-95/NJTP from the SE. Areas NW of 95 are not yet into the heavier clusters of rainfall that SENJ has seen already. NNJ/NWNJ should get into the tropical downpours and thunderstorms later today/tonight (Friday) once the blob of heaviest lifting/rainfall moves overhead of such. Rainfall is possible like this until about 9-10am tomorrow (Saturday) morning. It does look like SENJ will end up with more total storm rainfall accumulation than other areas of NJ but everyone should see a nice natural drink for vegetative concerns. Not drought-busting overall but a nice bite at it. Once the main area of rain clears out tomorrow, it should jumpstart a relentless tropical feel for the rest of the day with isolated showers and thunderstorms still around (most improve and stay clear). Saturday temps shouldn’t be that bad (80s) but the humidity will be. Temps then build into another heat wave (90+) for Sunday through at least Tuesday of next week. So, we’ll have relentless heat and humidity during those days much like earlier this week, possibly a few degrees hotter. Wednesday-ish appears transitional with a cold front sometime in the Wednesday night/Thursday period that would set up a solid feel of relief for Thursday and Friday. The front would bring some more rain. Then it looks like we transition back to reasobable, not excessive, summer warmth for next weekend. That’s the best I can do from this range for now.
Friday (July 12) high temperatures should range from mid-70s to lower-80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with sun breaking through here and there. Expect tropical downpours at times with flash flooding potential. Rain started in SENJ early this morning and is working northward. Expect embedded thunderstorms within the rain. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for all of NJ as rain and thunderstorms persist into Saturday morning.
Saturday (July 13) high temperatures should range in the 80s. Upper 80s away from the ocean and up in NNJ. Near-80 along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Tropical downpours and thunderstorms are likely for AM hours clearing out mostly by 9-10am. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible rest of day but most should experience improvement despite the muggy feel. It should feel hot, humid, and tropical even after the skies improve. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Sunday (July 14) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s away from the ocean and up in NNJ. Coastal regions closer to 85. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds and an excessively humid feel. Heat indices likely over 100. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should stay just above 70 for most of NJ.
An early look at next week indicates another heat wave that begins Sunday and lasts into mid-week. Hazy, hot, and humid with highs well into 90s and heat indices well over 100. Iso storms possible any day, anytime, anywhere. Some relief later in the week but let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™