Another Dry Temp Spike

Discussion: This week’s weather will continue to fall victim to a persistent ridging pattern. The current ridge is starting to depart which will put NJ under a warmer SW flow for Tues-Wed. On Thursday, the current ridge will handoff to another ridge approaching from the W. This will put NJ under a colder NW flow at the upper levels for Thursday into the weekend. At the surface we have high pressure under the front of the ridge which will drive a return-flow warm front through NJ tonight (Monday) into Tuesday morning. Can’t rule out areas of patchy fog with that Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Climatologically, we’re at the point where no matter how warm it gets during the day, it will still cool significantly for evening/overnight hours. We saw that on Halloween (went from 85 to 65 from 4-8pm and eventually 50s overnight) and I expect to see it Tuesday and Wednesday evenings/overnights after warmer afternoons. Saturday looks like a great day to be outside ahead of clouds and possible rain from a low tracking across the Great Lakes. Best chance for rain I’ve seen yet for this Sunday. Fingers crossed.

Monday (Nov 4) high temperatures should reach the 60-65 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Nov 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. A spike to near-80 is not off the table for areas away from the ocean. Skies should gradually transition from partly sunny to mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW (not good for fire risk/spread). Overnight lows should fall to the 55-60 range for most of NJ.

Wednesday (Nov 6) high temperatures should break 80 for some locations away from the ocean. If not, 75-80 is a good bet statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W (again, not good for fire risk/spread). Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with passing showers possible.

Thursday (Nov 7) high temperatures should reach the 60-70 range for most of NJ. Interior CNJ/SNJ the best chance to just break 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out passing showers across CNJ/SNJ. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from 35-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with most of NJ down to the 40s.

Friday (Nov 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should again range from 35-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with majority of NJ in the 40-45 range.

An early look at the weekend (Nov 9-10) indicates afternoon highs in the 58-64 range and overnight lows down to the 30s/lower-40s. Saturday looks mostly clear. More clouds for Sunday along with the best chance for rain I’ve seen in a while. No rain though 8( Let’s check back in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™