Alright Weather Expected (Dec 30-Jan 1)

No major weather-related problems are expected this weekend as we welcome in 2017. Let’s break it down…

Disco: The New England system has bombed down to a 972mb low over the tip of Maine. Behind it is a negative-tilted trough of cold air currently over New Jersey. While this is not true Arctic/brutal cold, it’s still extrapolating to colder air at the surface which should keep us near/slightly-below average overnight and through tomorrow morning. Saturday should then moderate some as departing high pressure contributes some southerly return flow. Saturday night into Sunday seems to be on the drier side despite the unsettled look. A northern stream low will be passing to our N as a weak wave of low pressure floats by to our S. As of right now the interaction is modeled weak but should it verify more robustly, we could be looking at isolated light precipitation throughout the region. Most of NJ would be in the 40s so precipitation type would most likely be non-frozen. Again, it’s modeled very weak and therefore very dry so it might just leave us with some cool looking clouds. Consider yourself notified of the low-chance wildcard scenario. Looking ahead, we’re likely dealing with a Great Lakes cutter that would place most of the Eastern US in the warm sector. Therefore, I would expect a mild and possibly rainy start to next week. But then a slow moving Arctic front should push through by Thursday and set up our potential larger snow event next weekend. I’ll be watching model guidance this weekend and might have to dust off the video pod-casting equipment Sunday night if the event still has support. 

Friday (Dec 30) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to lower-40s from NWNJ elevations to SNJ/SENJ coast. Skies should feature mostly sun and clouds but isolated lake-effect flurries/snow showers are possible, especially for NNJ. Winds should be stronger out of the NW with some occasional howling gusts. Overnight lows should fall below freezing statewide and possibly into the teens for NNJ elevations.

Saturday (Dec 31) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for NNJ elevations. The lower 2/3 of NJ should reach into the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with NNJ elevations possibly dipping into the 20s.

Sunday (Jan 1) high temperatures should reach into the 40s statewide. There’s a small chance of SNJ breaking 50 in some spots. The best bet right now are skies featuring sun and clouds. However a very small chance of isolated light rain is possible. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with SNJ and immediate coastal areas hanging onto 30s.

An early look at next week indicates a wet and milder start followed by a potentially snowy end. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™