All Sorts of Tropical

Discussion: The entire weekend looks hot, humid, and stormy. Not a washout but ample opportunities for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms which could jeopardize outdoor activities. A very tropical feel with high heat indices and all the safety concerns on the table like dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. Please stay as hydrated and cool as your situation allows for.

The main driver of these conditions (which should last through Tuesday) is a trough with a closed upper-low that will be slowly pushing from W to E across PA into NJ between now and Sunday. These upper dynamics will allow for easy lifting to occur which at least means precipitation. Diurnal solar surface heating will add to an easy-lifting environment wherever the sun can poke through and stay out. This will allow for negative buoyancy however I am not seeing adequate vertical wind shear to justify a widespread severe outbreak. I’m seeing ridonkulous PWAT numbers which means wherever it does rain, it could really open up and produce flash flooding from heavy downpours in short time windows. A very moisture rich lower atmosphere that doesn’t take much lifting to ring it out to the surface. So heavy rain and frequent lightning are much more probable widespread than severe winds. If there are going to be any severe winds, they would be localized off mesoscale-sized outflow boundaries from isolated/scattered thunder cells, not from a synoptic-sized feature.

Temps remain hot into early next week but then all eyes are on whatever becomes of Tropical Cyclone 4. I initially brought this up on Friday’s weekend outlook. Here is everything I can add at this point: I think it has the potential to reach tropical storm strength before interacting with Florida later this weekend, maybe a weak hurricane. The system should then curve and track up the east coast to at least OBX before continuing to re-curve out to sea. Models are currently spread on how close it could track to NJ as well as timing. When it passes through or just offshore of NJ (sometime between next Wednesday and the weekend, it should be a quick-moving typical nor’easter-like system but with temps pinned in the mid-to-upper 70s. At that point winds should be below damaging criteria for most of NJ but still moderate. The coast would see the highest winds and any related storm surge. Enhanced surf and coastal flooding likely regardless of track. Whether or not some much-needed precipitation will fall on NJ or just offshore of NJ is yet TBD. I’ll be discussing this in more detail over the next few days as secondary impacts, for NJ later next week from TC4, become more apparent. In theory, after that system’s remnants passes by NJ, it would dry out nicely just afterwards as zonal upper flow takes over. But I do see this system and I am watching for any additional escalation of threat for NJ, mainly ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas.

Friday (Aug 2) high temperatures should push well into the 90s away from the ocean. The best chance to near-100 will be interior CNJ/SNJ. Coastal regions should push to the mid-80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a tropical humid feel. Heat exhaustion/heat stroke/dehydration safety caveats are in place. Stay as hydrated and cool as your situation allows. Heat indices will be well over 100. Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly during PM hours later (after 7pm). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE, breeziest along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide as isolated showers and thunderstorms persist.

Saturday (Aug 3) high temperatures should reach a few degrees on either side of 90 away from the ocean. Coastal areas in the mid-80s. Another hot and humid day with isolated/scattered thunderstorm potential during PM hours…but not as hot as Friday. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW, breeziest along the SNJ coast. Overnight lows should again stay above 70 statewide as isolated showers and thunderstorms persist.

Sunday (Aug 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. A less hot day but still humid with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-70 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Aug 5-Aug 9) indicates the hot, humid, and stormy conditions lasting through at least Tuesday. Temps should then step down into 70s Wed-Fri as possible tropical system remnants either pass over or closely offshore of NJ. It doesn’t look like a horrible situation (wind or surge-wise) but could possibly bring some much needed rain to the area if it passes closer/over NJ. There would likely be some coastal flooding and enhanced surf at the very least. I will report more on this as we approach closer. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™