Discussion: The upper-jet will stay well to the N of NJ this week, as it commonly does with summertime ridging pumped by a Bermuda high. We’ve been stuck in a W US ridge pattern however the Bermuda high has been pumping a ridge for the E US too. The C US has no choice but to trough and produce SW flow over NJ for low-mid levels of the atmosphere. The C US troughs however have not been impressive. They come and go and keep us extremely unsettled with convergence between the Bermuda high and low pressure near the Great Lakes (under the C US trough). I don’t see the SW flow pattern changing for NJ anytime soon. As far as I can see into July, we look hot (not record), humid, and stormy. For this week, Monday-Wednesday look slightly stormier than Thursday-Friday with the best storm dynamics occurring today (Monday). I’ll be tracking radar later today when storms develop. Just know that on any day when it’s hazy, hot, and humid, an isolated thunderstorm could develop, especially if the sea breeze front comes in hard enough to act as a trigger to lift the humid air mass into the cooler air aloft (just like a cold front from the W or NW. Same mechanism. But anyway, the theme of Hazy, Hot, and Humid (Triple H) should hold all week. Temps near-90 but dew points near 70 allowing real-feels of 100+ likely. Stay as cool and hydrated as possible. The below forecast should seem very repetitive day-to-day with regard to temperature, humidity, wind direction, and chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Like how most imagine Florida pretty much. Ever get a hot towel at a restaurant to clean your hands? I’ve typically encountered this at Hibachi restaurants. Imagine leaning backwards and immediately laying that hot wet towel on your face. That’s how it’s going to feel when you step outside during peak daylight hours this week.
Monday (July 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has a good chance at cracking 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds to start with elevated humidity. Scattered-to-widespread thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon/evening. NNJ is favored for the strongest storms. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 statewide.
Tuesday (July 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible during afternoon/evening hours. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should again struggle to push below 70 statewide.
Wednesday (July 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Typical warmer locations (interior CNJ/SNJ) could push into the lower-90s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible during afternoon/evening hours. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.
Thursday (July 15) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas with continued elevated humidity. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fail to dip below 70 statewide.
Friday (July 16) high temperatures should again reach near-90 for most. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Can’t rule out at least isolated showers and thunderstorms during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fail to dip below 70 statewide.
An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same. Heat, humidity, and increased thunderstorm chances during PM hours. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC