A Tale of Two Fronts

Discussion: The upper low that captured Helene’s remnant energy has been parked over ~Kentucky for about 72 hours now. It is now a fraction of the strength it was during capture, mainly from the establishing ridge influence that’s currently floating across the N US/Canada from W to E. This remnant upper-level energy is now allowed to come through E to the ocean in the form of a weak upper level disturbance. For New Jersey this means some rain showers at most (if any) and likely confined to SNJ in the Tuesday-Wednesday AM period. There’s a much better chance for just clouds and periods of drizzle rather than a steady rain. Today (Monday) we have a little break in it all outside of a few isolated showers in SWNJ. So nicer today and then kind of like how the weekend was for Tuesday into Wednesday AM. We then have the first of two fronts coming through Wednesday. This first front will mainly serve as the kicker to get the upper-level Helene remnants out to sea. Along with this will come a slight reduction in humidity and a much-improved Thursday and Friday. I wouldn’t go as far to say crisp for Thursday and Friday but certainly comfortable. Dews should be in the 55-60 range. The second front will then come through Saturday and remind us of what season we’re now a few weeks into. Then it should get crisp overnight (I’m seeing temps down into the 40s/dews down into the 30s for much of NJ) but also allow for very comfortable afternoon highs in the 70s. So a nice teaser today, some more blah Tuesday-Wednesday, nice early fall weather Thursday-Friday, and nice mid-fall weather for the weekend.

There’s currently a lot of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Basin. Most systems have no impact on New Jersey. I’m watching one of them develop over the Yucatan Peninsula like how Helene did but more over land. If that came into fruition, it might recurve into areas recently hit by Helene early next week and take a more northerly track up the east coast later next week. This idea is far from any level of confidence especially since it has lost some support on recent model runs. It’s just a signal for now that could easily drop off model guidance. This kind of language should be used in sensitivity of recently hit areas. Unnecessary warnings for said areas would be inappropriate and uncalled for. Best to give it until later this week to see how the wave first interacts with the Yucatan. But as it currently stands, there are no direct tropical threats to New Jersey in the foreseeable forecast range, despite the tropics lighting up.

Monday (Sept 30) high temperatures should reach just over 70 in most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds, and a few isolated showers possible. I’m leaning on the drier side. Winds should be light out of the E/NE, slightly breezier along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Oct 1) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of drizzle/light rain possible here and there, not a large amount of rainfall. Winds should be light out of the E/NE away from the ocean but breezy right along the ocean (ECNJ/SENJ). Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Oct 2) high temperatures should reach near-70 again for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds, a little sunnier for SNJ and a little cloudier for NNJ. Winds should be light out of the E/NE (lighter for coasts than Mon-Tues). Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Oct 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations, possibly mid-to-upper 70s for the traditionally warmer locations of interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with noticeably reduced humidity. Winds should be very light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Oct 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Lower humidity should allow for a pleasant/comfortable feel with the exception that SNJ/SENJ could feature slightly higher humidity. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (Oct 5-6) indicates a return to fall feel. Highs should reach into the 70s and lows should drop to the 40s/lower-50s. Very low humidity should make for comfortable sunny days and crispy nuggets. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC