Discussion: Most model guidance has the surface low tracking from Ohio/W PA now through North-Central PA overnight/by morning, and into NY State/SE Canada by tomorrow afternoon. Given the proximity of the low’s track and track speed, NJ will spend a short time in the corner of the warm sector.
The warm front is what’s approaching SWNJ now (see radar image above). I expect this to continue moving to the N/NE with likely more impact to WNJ than ENJ overnight. The energy should then consolidate and pull into the NY State-located surface low later tomorrow (Thursday) morning. But for tonight/early tomorrow morning, the warm sector looks rainy and stormy with maybe some isolated severe criteria met here and there. The more probable scenario are non-severe downpours/storms.
At some point tomorrow morning, your location will spend that quick time in the warm sector. During such it will be muggy (high humidity) with isolated showers possible. More rain, possibly storms, should then push through from W to E ahead of the cold front. Should be from about 7-9am from W to E. The precip should shut off by 10am and the cold front should push completely through by early afternoon, if not sooner. Conditions should then significantly improve with clear conditions likely the rest of Thursday/Thursday night and all of Friday.
In English: Rain and storms are approaching SWNJ right now and should push up WNJ overnight with maybe some expansion into ENJ. Looks mostly non-severe but can’t rule out isolated severe. A small humid break tomorrow morning before more rain and storms push through from W to E between about 7am and 9am. Could make for a slow AM commute. Much improvement tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon through all of Friday. The weekend still looks a bit unsettled but less washout and more nuisance. I’ll have the detailed weekend outlook posted tomorrow evening. Have a great night and please be safe! JC
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