A Small Break in the Pattern (July 27-29)

Discussion: The upper-level pattern should remain locked through this weekend and into next week. Trough in the E US and ridge in the W Atlantic. Therefore the southerly meridional jet should persist and keep driving moisture up the east coast. I’m hoping this overall pattern breaks soon but I’m not confident that it will by the end of next week. That’s about as far out as I will confidently take long range models at this point. For this weekend we actually have a transient break in the pattern at the surface. The only solid chance of rain I see is Friday night/Saturday morning with the cold front passage. This should take humidity down a few pegs for most areas. SENJ might hang onto some mugginess given proximity of the stalled front. The front should then be forced back over NJ for next week as the overall pattern continues. If we want this pattern to break we need the Bermuda high to leave. And that’s not happening so long as there is blocking in the E Canada area. Low pressure systems will continue to round the E US trough and enhance rainfall along the convergence zone. This convergence zone ran up and down EPA (Williamsport to Harrisburg) instead of through NJ for most of this week. We will have to pay close attention this weekend in estimating where this convergence zone will set up next week.

Friday (July 27) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Areas furthest away from the ocean could take a run at 90. Skies should be partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms are possible especially during evening/overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most. Maybe low-to-mid 60s for NNJ elevations.

Saturday (July 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Maybe upper-80s for areas furthest away from the ocean. All thunderstorm action should clear for most areas by sunrise (SENJ still on the hook). Skies should be partly sunny with slightly-reduced humidity. SENJ still has a small chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Most of NJ should stay dry though. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (July 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Skies should be partly sunny with continued lower humidity for most (SENJ might hang onto it). Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates near average temperatures but a return to the unsettled pattern. Not washouts but an abundance of scattered rain and storms. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™