Discussion: The upper jet is currently S of NJ which correlates to the west side of the trough that NJ is in. This means NW flow and drier (less humid) air for most of NJ. However, a trough has lower geopotential heights so it doesn’t take much to spark a storm. Today (Monday) we saw this happen when a sea breeze front aggressively pushed into SENJ from the ocean. This created SE flow at the lower-levels and NW flow at the mid-upper levels. A cooler wedge of air into a warmer air mass…causing the lifting that created the S Burlington/S Ocean pop-up thunderstorm (now closer to Atlantic City). We might see one or two more before evening but otherwise that’s it. Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the theme of lower humidity and 80-degree temps. The humidity will return by Thursday but temps will still near 80-degrees. So it will be a sticky 80 instead of a dry 80. At this point the trough will be departing with zonal flow taking over for the weekend and ridging returning by mid-next week. As of now the weekend looks mostly okay/nice but can’t rule out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. The tropics remain quiet but we are soon heading into the ramp-up (August) towards peak hurricane season (September) so I expect that to change.
Monday (July 31) high temperatures (as of 430pm today – Monday) have topped off for most NJ locations in the upper-70s/lower-80s. We had a few isolated pop-ups form along the sea breeze front in SENJ (mainly S Ocean/S Burlington/Atlantic City areas) but that’s about the extent of it. Otherwise skies are mixed with more sun than clouds, winds are light out of the NW, humidity is still down, and we’ll fall back into the upper-50s/lower-60s overnight.
Tuesday (Aug 1) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds, possibly a little upper haze. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-65 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Wednesday (Aug 2) high temperatures should reach near-80 again. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 55-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as humidity returns.
Thursday (Aug 3) high temperatures should reach near-80 but it will feel warmer with returning humidity. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Morning showers are possible as are isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Friday (Aug 4) high temperatures should reach near-80 (go figure). Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. An unsettled day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates high temps reaching into the lower-80s. A slightly unsettled look meaning mostly dry days but not without a small chance of showers and or thunderstorms. Let’s take a closer look in a few days to get a better idea of which weekend hours will be most affected. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC