Cool Cloudy and Unsettled

Discussion: A trough is swinging into place over the NE US. It’s not a deep nor negative tilted trough but certainly packed with below-average temperatures for the region which will influence NJ this week. Much of our precipitation the last few days has been from the convergence of S flow from the departing SE ridge/Bermuda high and trough influence from the N/NW. As this boundary of convergence pulls away and colder air infiltrates the region, it could change rain over to snow for NWNJ elevations overnight tonight (Monday night into Tuesday morning), mainly N of I-80 and NW of I-287. This might be the last mention of snow until later in Q4 of this year. I wouldn’t get too excited though, only trace accumulations are possible for only the highest NWNJ elevations. Precipitation dynamics end Tuesday morning by sunrise, leaving NJ in a temporary NW jet of cold air for Tuesday-Wednesday (inside the trough/behind sfc low). A little bit of ridging tries to build for Wednesday night into Friday morning. This changes wind direction to S/SE or SE. The only problem with that is the ocean is still in the mid-to-upper 40s…so marine flow will keep the remainder of this week colder. Another upper-low/trough then pushes through for this coming weekend with likely a rain system on the front of it for Friday into Saturday morning. Improvement is then expected Sunday-forward as that trough/upper-low departs. Basically, it looks rainy today (Monday). Then cold, clear and dry Tues-Wed. Cold, cloudy and wet Thurs-Sat. Then mild Sunday into next week. These synoptic rain systems continue to take solid stabs at the drought situation that began late last Summer and carried through Fall/Winter.

Forecast

Monday (April 7) high temperatures will struggle to escape the 40s for most of NJ. Skies should remain cloudy with periods of rain likely and improvement by evening/overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 NNJ to SNJ. A very small chance for rain to change to snow for any leftover precipitation overnight. Nothing more than trace accumulations for the highest elevations are expected (N of I-80 and NW of I-287).

Tuesday (April 8) high temperatures should again, fail to break out of the 40s statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 35-35 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (April 9) high temperatures should hover a few degrees on either side of 50. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (April 10) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE (breeziest along the SENJ coast). Overnight lows should fall back into the 40s with periods of rain possible.

Friday (April 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be cloudy with period of rain likely. Winds should be breezy out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range with rain and breezy winds continuing into Saturday.

An early look at the weekend (April 12-13) indicates improvement on Saturday, once AM rain ends followed by sun and milder temperatures returning for Sunday into the following week. Let’s have another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC