A Mixed Bag

Discussion: Most of NNJ today has reached the ~75F mark. Much of CNJ/SNJ (away from the ocean) has reached the 80F mark. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas are hanging in the 55-65F range due to marine influence (the ocean is still in the 40s). The spike to near-80 across the SEPA/SWNJ/WCNJ areas indicate the best areas of diurnal instability and will likely feature the strongest thunderstorms tonight. Some initial cells are pushing into NNJ from the W however the main event is still anticipated for later this evening. NWNJ will see it first (between now and about 8pm). The stormfront should then parallel and reach the I-95 corridor by 10pm and push through the SENJ coast by ~midnight with rain tapering off fully by 2am. Downpours and breeze are a given. Thunderstorms are a good bet. Small but non-zero chances for hail and/or isolated tornadoes exist. A cold front then moves through behind the stormfront and sets up a cooler and dryer Tuesday-Wednesday ahead of a warmer and unsettled Thursday into the weekend. We can thank a stubborn Bermuda high and SE Canadian low for creating a boundary of convergence over the Mid-Atlantic US for the unsettled conditions expected this weekend.

Forecast

Tuesday (April 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Watch out for saturated ground and ponding from the heavy rain overnight. It will clear by sunrise but should be a solid dumping leading to wet grounds for at least the first half of the day. Winds should be breezy, sometimes gusty, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (April 2) high temperatures should reach a few degrees on either side of 50 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Winds should be breezy out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s with a few showers possible.

Thursday (April 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas should hang in the mid-60s. NNJ looks more unsettled than SNJ meaning showers and thunderstorms are possible. SNJ might escape this. Expect elevated humidity with the warmer temps. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 50 statewide with more showers and thunderstorms possible also favoring NNJ over SNJ.

Friday (April 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, not a statewide washout. Will have to play the radar. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 40-50 range NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (April 5-6) indicates 45-55 and unsettled for Saturday then 55-65 and unsettled for Sunday. An unsettled weekend in general meaning periods of rain are likely but not so much thunderstorms given the cooler conditions…more of an early spring rain feel. Everyone have a great rest of your week and please be safe, especially with tonight’s stormfront. JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC