Turning Nice

Discussion: We’ll be in a split jet zonal pattern for this weekend into next, the N stream to the N of NJ and the S stream to the S of NJ…which is why there won’t be a phased snowstorm this Sunday-Monday, but rather a S stream only system pushing across the SE US, to the S of NJ. By Tuesday of next week, the upper-levels should organize into more of a ridge look for the E US, brining a mild spring feel to the entire region with moderation back to reality by next weekend. So breezy and dry this weekend, mild and dry this coming week, and likely a cold frontal passage next weekend with possible stormfront next Sunday.

There’s no doubt we’re in the 9^th inning now and it doesn’t look good for snowstorms. At this point, I don’t blame you for leaving the stadium. Flurries are possible for NNJ/NWNJ tomorrow (Sunday) morning but with a quick rise above freezing, it should be a non-issue. That’s about the only snow chances I see for the next week or so. If any snow were to occur after March 15, it would be fighting serious sun-angle (September sun angle) and general climatology. It’s possible into early April as we all know. But the pattern does not look supportive and such is extremely rare. You know my stance…every team and batter deserves their last ups, even if they are losing the game. But yeah, my gut says we’re pretty much finished with winter and ready to embrace spring. March 2014, 2017, and 2018 had much different patterns than what I’m seeing now.

Forecast

Saturday (March 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 NNJ to SNJ with coasties hanging just above 30.

Sunday (March 9) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most NJ areas. Skies could start cloudy in the morning with a few flurries possible for NNJ/NWNJ but a quick rise above-freezing should make it conversational at most. Otherwise, skies should improve, and winds should relax to just light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (March 10-14) indicates mild conditions moving in for the week. Looks like much of NJ will get over 60 with coasties possibly hanging in the mid-to-upper 50s due to the colder marine influence (ocean still cold). The week looks mostly dry with typical spring breeze showing its face here and there.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC