Weekend Weather Update

Discussion: A bit more roller coasting of temperatures are expected over the next few days and through the weekend. It’s also important to realize that NNJ will behave very differently than CNJ/SNJ for upcoming precipitation due to the thermal gradient/boundary laid across the N Mid-Atlantic US from W to E. Take today for example…you’ve got NNJ elevations in the 30s with most o CNJ/SNJ in the 40s and 50s.

With the passage of a cold front earlier, we’re already seeing some stronger/gusty winds today (Wednesday). This should last overnight until tomorrow. Temps should crash pretty good through and after sunset this evening (Wednesday) with the entire state dipping below freezing eventually by sunrise tomorrow (Thursday) morning. Another chance for either flurries, snow showers, or possibly a snow squall exists overnight tonight once temps are colder statewide although this really favors NWNJ elevations over any other part of NJ. Accumulations would be little-to-nothing but temporary squall bursts (flizzards) could reduce visibility so please be careful if you encounter such again, likely for NWNJ only.

Thursday, we’re back to a dry colder look and feel especially Thursday night and that leads us to the wintry-type concern for Friday morning. As precipitation moves in from the W/SW on Friday morning, it will likely fall as rain (as warm air advects aloft first) over a colder surface, likely below freezing for parts of NNJ, especially NWNJ elevations (N of I-80 and NW of I-287). This creates either a sleet or freezing rain situation depending on how shallow or deep the warmer air starts out in the low-mid levels. For all other areas of NJ (likely S of I-80 and SE of I-287) expect just a cold rain. I know this sucks for the snow lovers but the precipitation, as rainfall, is much needed. Once temps warm a bit more Friday, any areas of sleet or freezing rain in NNJ will change over to rain like the rest of NJ. Total precipitation between Friday morning and Saturday morning looks like between a half inch and an inch for most of NJ with a more concentrated area of between one and 1.5” of rain across CNJ/SNJ areas. It all clears out by mid-to-late Saturday morning which should yield a clear day for most outdoor stuff on Saturday.

On Sunday, precipitation returns but looking mostly to graze NNJ only with a mix of snow and rain showers. This could possibly reach as far S as CNJ but not likely SNJ. Tomorrow’s weekend outlook will cover each day in more detail. But this is where I’m at for now.

I am watching a few wintry signals including Feb 6 and a few others. Like I said a few articles ago, “we’re likely going to punt on winter” through Feb 5 for any snow expectations. Feb 5-forward is starting to look snowy again. You know I’ll be tracking.

In English: Temps turn colder tonight through Friday morning with lake effect snow possible for NWNJ overnight tonight. Rain is then expected Friday morning through Saturday morning which could start out Friday morning as a wintry mix of snow/ice/freezing rain N of I-80 and NW of I-287. All areas then go over to rain by Friday midday and rain wraps up Saturday morning. Clear Saturday into Sunday then more light rain, possibly snow showers, mainly for NNJ on Sunday, possibly some of CNJ. Weekend outlook tomorrow will be more detailed. Have a great rest of your Wednesday and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC