Weekend Snow Slipping Away

Discussion: This weekend continues to give me the heebie jeebies. Yesterday I was leaning away from a bigger snowstorm happening. Today, I’m throwing the white towel on a large snowstorm but not yet on lighter snow.

We’re likely past the point where a major snowstorm can cripple NJ. Energy is moving onto land on the W coast and there’s no sign of the N stream phasing in behind the SE US upper low. Instead the N stream is confidently modeled to push over the trough and head towards NJ from the N stream instead of the S stream. This means less phasing and an anti-climactic solution for NJ this Saturday. If you followed my analysis from yesterday, it has only trended in a less favorable direction in the upper levels. #1 is the N stream. #2 is the energy that does merge into the SW US upper low (#3):

At the surface, this means two streams of energy (two lows) ejecting into the Atlantic Ocean with distance between them instead of all energy wrapped up in a single major storm. How much the N and S streams interact over the E US will determine the intensity of snow that does fall this Saturday. Less interaction would mean widespread flurries across the region with only trace accumulations. More interaction between the two could mean passing snow showers (C-1/2” type stuff) for much of the state (SE of 95/NJTP favored) with maybe some of coastal SENJ/SNJ squeezing out a 1-3/2-4” scenario. The GFS has the most interaction. The Euro has the least. The Canadian is in between:

So despite the loss of a major snowstorm this weekend, there will likely still be some snow that pushes through Saturday morning. We then turn back to dry and cold from Sunday through about Saturday, Jan 18. The next winter storm signal is for Jan 19-21. Since we’re 11 days away, I’m only mentioning that I am monitoring such. Serious tracking would not begin until next Tuesday or so.

After this next cold and dry break (this Sunday to next Saturday), a pattern favorable for snowstorm development is expected to re-emerge starting Jan 19 and this should last through at least the first week of February, possibly the second with more wintry storm signals likely within that period. Another reminder that a favorable pattern doesn’t guarantee a snowstorm (look at what happened with current favorable pattern). You can have all the ingredients to bake a cake on your kitchen counter. But they still need to be mixed together and cooked for the right amount of time. A favorable pattern is more about systems not having to thread the needle so much to produce accumulating snow. And then there’s the funny times when snow happens in an unfavorable pattern. Either way, there’s a lot of winter and snow opportunities left. In the baseball analogy, we’re moving from 2^nd to 3^rd inning and we’re still up a few runs from the early season action in NNJ as well as Monday’s SNJ action. Have patience CNJ.

In English: No changes to the expectation of cold, dry, and gusty wind conditions now through Friday morning. Friday should reach mid-to-upper 30s which should feel mild after this current stretch. The most reasonable expectation Saturday morning is anything from widespread flurries (little-to-no accumulation) to possibly some more concentrated snow showers (favoring SNJ/SENJ) capable of producing trace to light accumulations. For those hoping for a massive snowstorm after long-range model guidance jumped the shark….let it go Indiana. Let it go…

There will be more chances for cold and snow this winter. The next one I am looking at is the Jan 19-21 period and that kicks off another pattern favorable for supporting snow that should last into February. Serious tracking would not start for the Jan 19-21 system until next Tuesday or so (if it’s still showing). I will only be casually confirming it’s still on model guidance through this weekend into early next week. Everyone have a great rest of your Wednesday and don’t forget to secure loose items and small people tomorrow, it looks like the most gusty day of winds. Be safe! JC

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