Weekend Snow Chances Increasing

Discussion: Before we continue the biggest weenie wishcasting for a White Christmas ever, let’s quickly touch on tonight’s rainfall. Today is the last day of the milder stretch that started this week. Clouds should fill in more as we move through this evening. Rain then pushes through NJ tonight (Wednesday) ahead of the cold front and tapers off by mid-to-late morning tomorrow (Thursday). NJ is generally looking at total rainfall amounts of .25” to .5” when all is said and done tomorrow morning. Every bit helps…and while we are still below normal water tables, the drought situation is not as dire given the last few overperforming rain systems we’ve had.

Ok, onto this weekend. I don’t normally wishcast but I really want this to happen even if just a dusting/coating for the holiday lights to look extra cool. You all know I am evidence-based. In the prior few days, I’ve been talking about two pieces of energy remaining separate from each other: A N stream clipper and a S stream offshore low. When I say separate, I mean NOT phasing together into a major snowstorm. However, model guidance continues to lean towards the two pieces of energy interacting with each other partially. The N stream clipper is expected to weaken as it tracks across the N US towards the NE US. The S stream offshore low is expected to track offshore and reach out towards the clipper with an extended axis of low pressure known as an InVerted Trough (IVT).

IVTs are very hard to predict with certainty because it’s a very thin axis of heavier snowfall with areas just outside of the axis seeing little to nothing at all. The models have been targeting NJ the last few days. While the idea of an IVT happening is becoming likely, I would be surprised if any of the models are correct with the specific location of the IVT related to NJ. It might swipe and hit WNJ down through SWNJ. It might swipe and hit NENJ down through SENJ. It might split the difference and swipe from central NNJ down through central SNJ. You get the idea. These specifics could change up to the 11^th hour. But it does look like the chance for at least light snow accumulations are increasing for this weekend, specifically the Friday evening through Saturday noon period. Anything from a dusting to a few plowable inches are possible.

Regardless of whatever falls and sticks, a very cold air mass will push into NJ with this IVT. We are talking Arctic air. Sunday into Monday looks like the pipe freezing stuff…highs in 20s lows in single digits without even factoring in wind chills. So, whatever falls and sticks from the Friday PM-Saturday AM snow showers, it will likely stay around on natural surfaces into at least Christmas Eve.

Then we have another event I am watching for later Christmas Day into Thursday, mainly for NNJ. Models are indicating some snow/ice possible in this time frame but likely just rain S of I-78. I will continue to report accordingly but my main focus will be first on the snow showers this weekend.

In English: A quarter to half inch of rain should fall across NJ tonight (Wednesday) into tomorrow (Thursday) morning. This should clear out by daybreak Thursday with improving conditions by Thursday afternoon despite temperatures falling into a colder pattern. On Friday, precip should move in as a snow/rain mix but change to all snow by Friday night. Anything from a coating to a few inches are possible by Saturday noon and this should stick around on natural surfaces into Christmas Eve…roads will obviously be de-iced or plowed if needed. SENJ could see less stickage due to the above-freezing temps hanging on there the longest. But all areas should eventually fall below freezing at the surface. We’ll issue snow impact maps closer to the event. Today is the last day I am casually monitoring. Tomorrow will begin serious tracking if still showing. But over the last 24 hours, the idea of weekend snow showers has gained confidence. It’s not a lock just yet but oh am I hoping for it! Also there is now the potential for snow/ice for NNJ on Christmas Day (likely rain for CNJ/SNJ). I will continue to monitor and report accordingly. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC