Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds

Discussion: A negatively tilted trough is expected to enhance a surface low and bring a decent amount of rainfall to NJ this week. The primary low is currently over the Great Lakes and has sent a warm front through from SW to NE today (Monday). We saw some rain from this (NNJ more than SNJ) and spotty showers could continue into later tonight. A clearing is expected between later tonight and Tuesday night as temperatures begin to surge in the warm sector. On Wednesday morning, a secondary low should form over the Appalachian Mountains (near WV) and track NE towards the NE US and SE Canada. This secondary low should 1) drive even milder air into NJ on Wednesday (warmest day of the week) and 2) Bring a concentrated area of rainfall to NJ between early Wednesday morning and late Wednesday night. This will all be too warm for snow with the exception of the last few bits of precipitation late Wednesday night/early Thursday AM. Such could fall as snow in NW areas of NJ but likely without accumulation. The bigger weather safety hazard this week is wind. Winds should begin building a bit this evening (Monday evening) out of the S/SW. On Tuesday, S/SW winds should gradually intensify into Wednesday morning. The period from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening should feature the highest winds. SENJ is target for gusts of 40-50mpg out of the S/SW until the cold front pushes through (~Wednesday afternoon/early evening). Then all of NJ will be subject to 30-40mph gusts out of the W/NW overnight and through most of Thursday. Winds should relax and subside Thursday night into Friday morning as a colder air mass sets in. Thursday should be transitional turning colder and Friday should be the coldest day of the week to sternly oppose Wednesday as the warmest. Black ice concerns for Thursday morning are legitimate in areas of poor drainage or freestanding puddles. Most roads, however, will evaporate from the dry winds behind the cold front before freezing. Use some caution though prior to sunrise Thursday. If it looks wet, assume it’s frozen. Temps will only be just below freezing so I think most areas should be good. We then transition from a cold start to the weekend to a milder start to next week (similar to this week). Next week is another mild stretch to start before temps reload colder at the end of the week.

We are still in what I call a snapback pattern. A very warm Oct-Nov led to a very cold Thanksgiving weekend through most of last week. Now, we’ve snapped back to mild today through Wednesday and we’ll snap back again to cold for Thursday into Friday/Saturday. Wash, rinse and repeat for next week but to a lesser extent. The magnitude of the extremes however is lessening with each snapback and should approach a limit of seasonably average temperatures by the end of next week. Average temps are low-to-mid 40s for this time of year and that’s what I expect to level off at towards the end of next week into the holidays. Think of pulling a bow back and letting go. The string will move forwards and backwards until becoming still. That’s what I think temperatures will do between now and about Dec 18-20. There are no snow events that I am currently tracking but I do think we’ll be back at it by mid next week for the 7-day period beyond that.

In English: Today through Wednesday are mild with Wednesday the warmest day of the week. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the worst of it occurring during the day Wednesday. We then dry out and chill down for Thursday-Saturday before rebuilding milder again early next week. Wash, rinse and repeat for next week to a lesser extent. I don’t think snow is in the forecast until closer to Christmas. Not for the next 7-10 days at least.

Forecast

Monday (Dec 9) high temperatures are maxing in the 45-55 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with period of rain possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW, a little breezier along the immediate SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 with more light rain, drizzle, and fog possible into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday (Dec 10) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. NNJ should stay cloudier but parts of SNJ could see periods of sun before all areas cloud up by late-afternoon or early-evening. Rain will eventually move in Tuesday night and deliver another much-needed soaking for the ground into Wednesday as winds begin to build. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range for most NJ locations.

Wednesday (Dec 11) high temperatures should reach a few degrees on either side of 60…the mildest day of the week. Cloudy skies and periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall are likely. 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall total are expected in the Tuesday PM-Wednesday PM period. Winds should be gusty out of the SW during the day then switch to breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW overnight. Overnight temps should fall to the 30-35 range once rain ends likely just before or near midnight. A small chance for rain to end as snow, mainly for NWNJ elevations but accumulations are not expected. Winds should help dry the roads prior to freezing but anything wet/freestanding puddles/etc. will likely freeze. The combination of moisture and high winds could produce power outages.

Thursday (Dec 12) high temperatures should climb to the upper-30s/lower-40s for most. This will help mitigate anything that freezes overnight by daybreak. I expect winds to dry most road surfaces but whatever doesn’t evaporate could freeze. NNJ elevations have the best chance to stay in the 30s while SENJ coasts have the best chance to pop just over 40. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds (improving throughout the day). Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W keeping the power outage possibility alive. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as NW winds remain blustery.  

Friday (Dec 13) high temperatures should max in the 30s for most NJ locations, even for ECNJ/SENJ coasties. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should relax to just light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (Dec 14-15) indicates dry conditions with a few clouds around. Highs should range 40-50 with lows in the 20s/30s. A gradual warming throughout the weekend into the next mild mild period to start next week. Early signs say a much colder look heading into the holidays, to close out 2024 and start 2025. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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