Discussing First Snowfall for Some

Discussion: I’m not deducing much looking at upper-jet (250mb) winds. Slight deviations in either direction but no buckling. 500mb geopotential height anomalies paint a much better picture. I can see the existing ridge eroding by Wednesday to make way for a slow moving closed-off upper low (forms a trough for E US) Thursday through the weekend. I then see a mature shortwave joining the back-side of the trough Saturday-Sunday and a trailing area of energy coupling up with the departing upper low next Monday-Tuesday. For the lower levels of the atmosphere, we’ll see a slug of rain between Wednesday PM and Thursday AM. This disturbance will be riding the front of the upper low/trough. This is the best chance for much-needed rainfall in New Jersey. The steadier rain will then halt by Thursday afternoon and allow for a colder air mass to settle in through Friday and the rest of the weekend. The mature shortwave I mentioned above could bring an additional concentrated area of precipitation to at least parts of NNJ Saturday night into Sunday morning. Look for rain changing to snow if this happens but the surface will likely be too warm for snow stickage. Otherwise, we’ll have strong winds blowing over the Great Lakes towards NJ for most of the weekend. Since the lakes are not yet frozen, the energy should pick up moisture and dump it on parts of PA/NY and maybe NJ in the form of lake-effect snow flurries/showers. If it squalls up, it squalls up. Again though, with the lower-levels and surface likely above-freezing, I wouldn’t hold my breath for accumulations. Likely just drizzle for the lower 2/3 of NJ. Flakes would have the best chance N of 78/NW of 287. I then mentioned a trailing piece of upper level energy for Mon-Tues (Nov 25-26). I’ve been watching this for a few days. It was only bringing snow to New England but now has it across some of extreme NNJ. I’m watching for a colder and snowier trend for more of NJ further S. This feature will all depend on the steering ridge to its N, the interaction with the departing upper low/trough, and how much it can dig while passing over the N Mid-Atlantic US. Either way, its now safe to say that we’ve entered snow tracking season, at least for NWNJ/NNJ.  

In English: The mild stuff (highs in the 55-65 range) will linger through Wednesday but then we’re shifting to a much colder look and feel to close out the last third of November. Rainfall is possible this Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with an expected amount range of a quarter-inch to a half-inch. Thursday afternoon through the weekend is then mixed with sun, clouds, and passing showers at times. There’s a chance that rain mixes with snow or for lake-effect flurries (greatest chances for NWNJ) Saturday into Sunday. But I want to emphasize that it will not be a all rain/snow all weekend event. Likely conversational flakes at best and favoring NWNJ. For most areas, just drizzle at times. Another snow/rain signal is then showing for next Monday-Tuesday (Nov 25-26) but we have time to track.

Forecast

Monday (Nov 18) high temperatures should max out in the mid-to-upper 60s across most of NJ. Closer to 60 for NNJ elevations and immediate coastal regions. 65+ possible everywhere else in Jersey. Skies should remain mostly clear. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW through sunset before relaxing overnight as lows bottom out in the 30s for most NJ locations. 40s for coasties.

Tuesday (Nov 19) high temperatures should reach the 55-60 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Nov 20) high temperatures should reach the 55-60 range again. Skies should gradually increase in cloud coverage with rain showers possible by evening. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should hang in the 40s for most NJ locations as rain falls overnight with occasional breeze at times. A quarter to a half-inch of rain is the general expectation by Thursday morning. Here’s to hoping for slightly more.

Thursday (Nov 21) high temperatures should reach the 45-50 range for most NJ locations. The steadier rainfall should end by late-morning (earlier for NWNJ, later for ENJ) with most areas remaining cloudy through afternoon hours. Maybe the sun gets through in NNJ. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows range from 35-45 as skies remain mostly cloudy with drizzle possible at times.

Friday (Nov 22) high temperatures should struggle to break out of the upper-40s. Maybe parts of SNJ/coasties just get over 50. A much colder feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. More sun for NNJ, more clouds for SNJ. Passing showers are possible at any time. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should dip into the 30s for most NJ locations.

An early look at the weekend (Nov 23-24) indicates more of the colder look and feel…highs in the 45-53 range, overnight lows in the 32-40 range. A mixed bag of sun and clouds with possible passing showers of drizzle or non-accumulating snow mixing in. NWNJ would be favored over SENJ. The ground likely not cold enough for stickage but the sight of snow falling would at least be conversational. I’ll report more on this later in the week. I’m then following another longer-range signal for next Monday-Tuesday (Nov 25-26). It’s early but taking notice to a colder southward trend that now includes parts of extreme NNJ. I will include updates on this signal, if warranted, when discussing the sooner weekend possibility of first flakes for many. Either way, we’re now entering snow tracking season. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™