Colder Air Briefly Returns

Discussion: A ridge is currently (as of Sunday afternoon) departing the E US. With it will go our above-average temperatures and the series of disturbances that brought rain this past Friday and today (Sunday). The rest of this week should occur under below average 500mb height anomalies in the form of a series of progressive upper lows and non-deep troughs. That means colder temps Monday-Thursday but nothing well organized such as a synoptic rain or snowstorm. The only snow that would be possible would be more lake effect action off the Great Lakes but nothing’s jumping out at me. I’m then seeing another temporary ridge for this coming weekend which would bump temps back up to the above-average/milder category Friday, Saturday, and some of Sunday. I’m then seeing a rainy frontal system Sunday that would return us to cold for the following week. But after today/tonight’s (Sunday) rain, we could be dry until the Sunday frontal rain (Monday-Saturday). We were originally tracking a signal for this ~Thursday (Dec 7) which evolved into an inverted trough on model guidance last week. We will still have an ocean storm, but the inverted trough looks to take it’s westward swipe too far off the E US coast. This ocean storm and IVT are what will transition the NAO from negative-to-positive which constituted our best evidence for a wintry signal. But it looks like it will miss offshore. So again, tonight’s (Sunday) rain clears out by late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Monday-Thursday are then colder with Wednesday-Thursday the coldest point (strongest cold NW jet). Then milder again Friday, Saturday, and some of Sunday. Then a frontal rain system Sunday night that should turn us back colder to start next week Dec 11-forward. The chances of accumulating snow in New Jersey are low as far out as I can confidently see (about December 11). I will report accordingly if that changes but all snow eyes are on moving on to the second half of December as calendar winter begins and the polar vortex is expected to relax a bit (-AO) to allow colder air to spill into N America.

Temps should fall into the 35-50 range (from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts) overnight tonight (Sunday) as rain tapers off by Monday morning.

Monday (Dec 4) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with general improvement from the weekend. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ locations, maybe 20s for the traditional colder spots.

Tuesday (Dec 5) high temperatures should make it into the low-to-mid 40s for most of New Jersey before taking a dive during/after sunset. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should change from W to NW throughout the day and set up a colder night in the 20s for most of New Jersey. Can’t rule out teens in NNJ elevations while the immediate coast hangs right around or just above-freezing. Can’t rule out some overnight flurries in NNJ before sunrise on Wednesday (while temps are still colder) – but only trace accumulations are likely.

Wednesday (Dec 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s with more clouds than sun. Winds should be light-to-breezy at times out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall back below freezing for most of New Jersey. Near-20 to near-freezing from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Dec 7) high temperatures should just make it over 40 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Dec 8) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates another milder weekend (for December). Highs in the 50s. Lows in the 30s. Not exactly scorching for December but certainly above average. Right now, I’m seeing a cold front in the Sunday-Monday period that would bring below-average temperatures to start next week. Beyond this coming weekend is very uncertain with a lot of pattern volatility. But we do look to remain in an active pattern (systems every 3-5 days). I’m still looking for one of those systems to time with a cold shot for at least our first light snow event of the season. We might have to wait until mid-December or later for that though. I’ll be watching and will update accordingly. Otherwise, have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™