The Good Stuff is Here

Discussion: The only disturbance I see in the upper levels is for the Sunday night into Monday period when a strong upper-jet streak will be over NJ in correlation with a small dissolving positive-axis trough. There should be a correlating surface low ejecting off OBX in that time frame but most energy and precip associated with it should pass just over or SE of NJ from the trough-rounding progressive steering currents. …a rain system to the SE of NJ that could scrape NJ with some rain Sunday PM into Monday AM. Otherwise, this weekend (now through at least Sunday afternoon) looks amazing and so does Monday afternoon through most of next weekend.

Lee is at NJ latitude, well offshore of NJ, and moving northward. We basically beat Lee to death last week as long-range model guidance did a very good job walking LEE S and then slightly W of Bermuda. It turned out, as I suspected, that LEE will not fully recurve back towards Europe. Instead it will encounter some trough interaction and turn into the Gulf of Maine a bit Saturday morning before later making landfall Saturday PM near the E Maine/W Nova Scotia area. Lee will likely transition to an extra-tropical cyclone before said landfall as frontal boundaries attach to the center of former-tropical circulation while over colder water temps. Even though Lee missed NJ, it is still offshore and sending in some rough waters. NJ beaches, ECNJ and SNJ, should expect dangerous rip currents, rough surf, and minor coastal flooding today (Friday) through at least Saturday night.

Right now (Friday) we are in that magical spot to the E (and soon to the SE) of a tropical cyclone. For NJ this means refreshing cooler and less humid air wrapping around the W (and soon to be SW) side of the circulation…meaning breezy conditions for NJ out of the N (and soon to be NW). Lee remnants will then depart and end NJ influence around Sunday morning as the OBX coastal forms and ejects. Again, only some rain Sunday night into Monday for NJ. Then high pressure will move in beyond that and dominate the pattern with cooler, drier, sinking air through at least the start of next weekend. No other tropical concerns for NJ in the near-future although we might see some more activity between Cape Verde and the Caribbean. You know I’ll be watching.

Friday (Sept 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds (cloudier near coast). A very pleasant feel with lower temps and humidity. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal ECNJ/SENJ should be more of a breezy-to-gusty scenario especially for immediate coastal areas. Expect dangerous rip currents, rough surf, and minor coastal flooding along ECNJ/SNJ coasts due to Lee’s offshore location. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Sept 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a continued pleasant feel. Winds should be light to breezy out of the W/NW. Expect dangerous rip currents, rough surf, and minor coastal flooding along ECNJ/SNJ coasts due to Lee’s offshore location. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Sept 17) high temperatures should range from mid-70s to lower-80s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers possible for afternoon-evening hours (mainly SE of I-95/NJTP). Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with more passing showers possible into Monday morning.

An early look at next week suggests the good stuff sustaining once any Sunday PM/Monday AM rain ends. We’re talking highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s/50s. Low humidity and dry skies. Let’s take a closer look on Monday morning. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™