Humid Pattern Continues but Not as Hot

Discussion: The heat dome, you might have heard about a few weeks ago in Florida and the SE US, has gradually retrograded over the south-central US, towards the SW US and will eventually slide up into the NW US/SE Canada. The heat dome seems like a media term but it’s just a very slow-moving ridge of high pressure. It allows conditions to build extremely hot and humid underneath the ridge/dome with little-to-no rainfall. As this area slides up into the NW US, it will force a counteractive trough into the E US for this ~Wednesday into the weekend. That’s why you will see below, a slight decline in temps for Thursday into the weekend. It’s actually what you want to see as a NJ snow lover in the winter. It’s pretty meh for mid-summer though…preventing the Caribbean heat from the NJ beaches. The lower heights of the trough from ~Wednesday into the weekend will allow for the unsettled pattern to remain in place (hot, humid, isolated storms any time/day, etc.). At some point this weekend a weak area of high pressure will then push into NJ from the W/NW. This should happen by Saturday and make for a drier weekend with temporary NW flow. I say drier with respect to rain, not the above-average humidity. So hot, humid, and unsettled through Friday then warm, still somewhat humid, and more settled for Saturday-Sunday. The cooler and drier wave could last through next Monday, maybe into Tuesday…but I expect the heat and humidity to return with SW flow by Tuesday night/Wednesday. We can probably expect tropical interests to gain traction towards the end of this month for at least the SE US. Tropics should stay quiet until then.

Monday (July 17) high temperatures have maxed for most NJ locations in the 85-90 range. A few isolated spots along 95 are just over 90 while the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas are hanging closer to 80. Humidity is still up but not as unbearable as it has been. Not seeing any storm potential today outside of a very isolated/rogue pop-up. Most areas should continue to see a sunny hazy (more wildfire smoke) sky. Winds should remain light out of the SW as overnight lows dip into the 65-75 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (July 18) high temperatures should reach near or just over 90 away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hang in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity should increase again from where it was on Monday. Afternoon-evening thunderstorms are possible but not for everyone…more isolated hit-or-miss stuff. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (July 19) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hang in the mid-to-upper 80s again. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Rain, maybe a few rumbles, are possible through late-morning with improving conditions for afternoon-forward. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (July 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds and more humidity. Can’t rule out an isolated afternoon-evening pop-up shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (July 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations, maybe some interior spots higher in the 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates good summer conditions. Temps in the 80s but drier with high pressure eventually moving in by weekend’s end. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™