Mild and Unsettled this Week. Still Watching Period Beyond.

Discussion: The anomalously high (geo heights) ridge has formed and is still expected to meander around/over Greenland until at least Dec 17^th. We’re going to see a milder week this week as heights actually build up the E US coast and feed the Greenland ridge (the block). Monday looks pretty normal but Tuesday into the weekend looks very unsettled meaning a lot of clouds and various periods of rain. A coastal storm could develop for ~Friday which would likely be too warm for snow but could deliver some stronger winds off the ocean. The milder stretch (mild for December) should come to an end this weekend as the ridging moves out and lower heights move in from the W. A train of shortwaves will then (next week) start moving into the NW US and will travel across the US towards the mid-Atlantic. The ingredients are all there in the general Dec 11-17 window for a snowstorm to form. It all depends on when the better ridging can move off the E Pacific and onto the W US/SW Canada area. This is the pattern I am looking for to then create a trough for the E US and ultimately a surface low to ride the front of said trough. Because of the blocking, the surface low would slow and stay around longer, possibly delivering more of a snowstorm. Again, this is just what I am watching for. These ingredients could very well be wasted via poor timing of upper-level features. It is at the very least, a window of opportunity for snowstorm development opening around Dec 11. I imagine you will start to see more wilder surface solutions modeled this week for the Dec 11-17 period. As I said a few days ago, ignore them. It’s still the upper-level look (W US ridge/E US trough/Greenland ridge) that we should continue paying attention to for now. The surface solution fun wouldn’t come until the 4-7 day before the storm period and the earliest that would be is likely this weekend. You’ll likely be hearing more from me this week. For now, expect a milder immediate week ahead with on-and-off rain into the weekend.

Monday (Dec 5) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny during the day with increasing cloud coverage later at night. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should drop into the 30-40 rage from elevations to coasts. Any early rainfall that arrives will likely fall on above-freezing surfaces.

Tuesday (Dec 6) high temperatures should range from 50-60 from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light out of the S/SW, breezier for SENJ coast. Overnight lows should sit near-50 with more rain possible into Wednesday AM.

Wednesday (Dec 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. Skies could start rainy and cloudy with improvement by afternoon. Clouds might linger into the night. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s for most.

Thursday (Dec 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks here and there. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Dec 9) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to lower-50s from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely. Winds should be light out of the E, likely breezier right along the ocean. Overnight lows should fall to the 30-40 range from elevations to coasts. Elevations could be looking at a changeover from rain to snow.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s. NWNJ elevations could be looking at snow flurries/showers. Will update accordingly. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™