There’s a Chance

Discussion: A rather impressive upper jet should push over NJ early this weekend. This should come along the front-side of a positive axis trough that’s swinging down into our region from the N. This trough then slowly becomes neutral while moving over NJ and eventually out of the region by Monday night. So from Thursday night through at least Sunday morning, we’re under lower geopotential heights and therefore are extremely unsettled. At the surface, it makes the most sense to me that the strongest and most severe thunderstorms for NJ will occur Thursday PM into early Friday AM. This is when the boundary will be over NJ with the raging upper jet approaching and a low pressure trigger nearby. That’s not to disqualify rain and storms later tonight (Wednesday night) into Thursday AM. Those are still possible. But yeah, thinking the main event is generally later Thursday PM for NJ. After the main storm period of interest (Thursday PM-Friday AM) moves out, we’re left with cooler conditions for the weekend but still unsettled and likely more clouds than sun. It doesn’t look like 24/7 rain and storms. There should be multiple-hour stretches of sun and then similar stretches of clouds/rain. Again a very unsettled general air mass. Cooler but still humid. Possibly a September feel instead of July if you’re familiar with Jersey weather feelz. But just know it could rain/storm at any time. There’s no way to anticipate when exactly that could be. Low pressure looks to linger behind the front and eventually move out to sea. With any luck this could end the rain/storm threat by Sunday morning and allow firework shows to happen Sunday night. Conditions should become much more settled heading into Monday.  

Thursday (July 1) high temperatures should only reach into the 80s. After recent days this should produce some relief but still a lot of humidity around. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Rain and thunderstorms are possible, especially during PM hours. We’ll likely be nowcasting such on radar tomorrow evening. A lesser chance for rain and storms during AM hours but not completely off the hook. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (July 2) high temperatures should only reach the into the 70s. Another step down in temperatures but with humidity lingering around. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms around. I imagine there could be some sunny breaks or even a few hours of sun but overall conditions look very unsettled. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (July 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. Coastal regions should see the warmest temps of the day closer to 80. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers around. Not so much a stormy day. Rather nuisance lighter on-and-off rain type stuff. Expect humidity to linger. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible during AM hours but PM hours could possibly cooperate with fireworks shows. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Monday (July 5) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Maybe a few 90s away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out an isolated shower but much more settled than earlier in the weekend. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most areas.

An early look at next week indicates temps in the upper-80s/lower-90s with humidity not as bad as recent times. A typical mix of mostly clear with afternoon pop-ups. Let’s take another look after the 4^th. Everyone have a great holiday weekend and please be safe! JCants

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™