Unsettled Conditions (April 27-May 1)

Discussion: There will be no major synoptic storms this week despite the active and meridional look to the upper-level jet and 500mb height anomalies. At the surface we currently (Sunday) have a slow moving and weak low pressure system tracking overhead towards the ocean. This should keep Sunday and most of Monday cloudy and wet. After a small of decent conditions Tuesday, another system should move in from the W. Wednesday should be the warm front day, Thursday the cold front day and Friday the occluded low/upper-level disturbance day. That should mean mostly cloudy, milder with a few passing showers for Wednesday. Thursday should see a period of downpours along the cold front but not a total washout. You might see a sunny and mild, but breezy, break ahead of the frontal rain with a great feeling of instability. The frontal precip could feature thunderstorms. We’ll have to assess their strength as we closer approach. Friday should feature isolated showers with a cooler NW flow aloft. We then get somewhat of a break for the weekend with milder temperatures and only isolated run-of-mill spring showers. Most of the weekend looks nice.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey.

Monday (April 27) high temperatures should reach near-50. Skies should be mostly cloudy with passing showers around. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to lower-40s.

Tuesday (April 28) high temperatures should reach near-60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (April 29) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with periods of isolated/scattered rain possible. Winds should be breezy out of the E/SE, perhaps gusty at times along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts (minor coastal flooding possible). Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (April 30) high temperatures should reach near-60. Interior CNJ/SNJ might reach higher into the 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain, possibly thunderstorms, likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a few isolated rain showers around. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates improvement. Highs in the 60s, maybe getting near-70. Lows only bottoming out near-50. Even though a few run-of-mill isolated spring showers might be around, most of the weekend looks pretty good. Let’s revisit later in the week. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™