Mild Start. Cold Finish (Nov 25-29)

Discussion: It looks like we’ll get a short break this week from the below-average temperatures that we’ve gotten used to. Monday through Wednesday looks relatively mild with highs well into the 50s for many areas and in some cases flirting with 60. An E US ridge will be setting up in the upper levels. A low will then track through the Great Lakes and over New England Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An upper-level low will accompany this system. The warmest temperatures of the week will occur in the warm sector (Tuesday-Wednesday). Then once the cold front is through we’ll chill down pretty good again for Thursday through Saturday. I would like to mention that winds could become quite breezy/gusty Wednesday-Thursday. First out of the SW ahead of the cold front and then out of the NW behind the cold front. Keep this in mind for travel-related concerns. Other than the frontal rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning I’m not seeing any precipitation chances this week or weekend. So mild and dry Mon-Wed. Unsettled and windy Wed PM-Thurs-AM. Then cold and dry Thursday PM-Saturday. Sunday looks milder heading into Monday. Then I am watching a stronger-modeled low which could bring both wintry and non-wintry precipitation and higher winds to NJ in the Monday-Tuesday period of next week.

Monday (Nov 25) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Nov 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-t0-upper 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Nov 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. NNJ elevations should hang near-50. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with rain showers around. Winds should be breezy, sometimes gusty, out of the SW during the day. Winds should be stronger at night especially for NNJ. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Nov 28 – Thanksgiving) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy, sometimes gusty, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to near-freezing NNJ to SNJ as winds subside.

Friday (Nov 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder temperatures sustaining with dry conditions. It looks like we moderate Sunday into Monday morning. I’m then watching a storm signal for Dec 1-2 which could produce wintry conditions for elevations possibly lower in NJ. Will report accordingly as we approach closer. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™