Snow? Let’s Discuss (Nov 4-8)

Discussion: Temps maxed out in the 50s today (Sunday) and will likely dip for another cold Sunday night/overnight. I’d expect below-freezing for most areas away from the SNJ coast especially NNJ elevations. We then moderate some from Monday into Thursday on the back-side of a weak ridge. Some lighter rain is possible late Monday night into Tuesday but nothing serious. Thursday night into Friday is when a trough should then drop southward over Mid-Atlantic US. At the very least we should see a significantly noticeable drop in temperatures heading into the weekend (Nov 8-10).

Snow? It’s possible but I’m not ready to commit just yet. For planning and safety awareness purposes let’s just watch it as a possibility for now. There’s a cut-off upper-level low in the SW US that will get caught up in the jet and track across the S US this week. If it interacts more with the dropping trough Thursday night then NJ might see its first snowfall of the season Thursday into Friday. Given time of year, climatology, lower-level temperature profile, etc. it would be hard for snow to accumulate S of I-80 IMO. N of I-80 would depend on N extent of precipitation shield. The models are worlds apart right now. GFS has the low ejecting into the Atlantic Ocean over Georgia or South Carolina. That would likely be a miss to the S. The Euro is still showing the snowier outcome with the low ejecting further north in the Mid-Atlantic US (OBX/S Delmarva). I’ll be following closely and will report accordingly. Thursday evening is not far away so I’ll likely have an update tomorrow evening. Also the mid-November winter storm signal is still alive. Just a signal for now (favorable pattern and players on the field). Let’s get through this weaker Thursday-Friday signal first.

Monday (Nov 4) high temperatures should range from lower to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny, a few clouds by sunset and a small chance of an overnight passing shower. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Nov 5) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s for most areas. Skies should be clearer for NNJ. SNJ could see periods of rain mainly prior to sunset. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.  

Wednesday (Nov 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Nov 7) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Cloud coverage should gradually increase throughout the day. Rain, with a small possibility of snow, is possible overnight. See above discussion. Winds should be light to breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s.

Friday (Nov 8) high temperatures should only reach the 40s for most areas. Skies should gradually clear after the early-morning system moves out. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should dip below freezing for most areas with the exception of immediate ECNJ/SENJ/SWNJ coastal regions.

An early look at the weekend indicates another cold day on Saturday (like Friday) with some moderation for Sunday but not much. Dry otherwise.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC