Refreshing Conditions (Sept 16-20)

Discussion: Upper-level ridging should dominate the pattern this week. As the ridge slowly builds and approaches (Monday-Thursday) NJ should find itself under northerly 500mb flow. The warmest areas of the US this week should be closer to the Great Lakes, maybe even S Canada, under the meat and potatoes of the ridge. An area of high pressure at 850mb should track along this flow from Maine to at least South Carolina (from N/NE to S/SW). This should set up statewide dry comfortable NE/ENE onshore flow for most of this week. By Friday morning the high should be well to the S/SW of NJ and the ridge should be more overhead of NJ. Therefore expect a warmer air mass to return from the W/NW for Friday through the weekend. Strange but the warm front should approach from the W/NW as a typical cold front does. The weekend looks pretty clear however since we’re dealing with high pressure return flow rather than a low pressure warm sector. Another area of high pressure should then push a cold front through next Monday returning us to comfortable conditions for next week.

Tropical Storm Humberto is sitting a few hundred miles E of ~Jacksonville, FL latitude. The Euro was correct about it tracking further N and stronger. It should soon become a category one hurricane. Weakness in the ridge to the NE of Humberto should allow Humberto to turn to the NE soon and phase with the NW Atlantic trough. Once it phases the above-mentioned weekend ridge could tug it towards the US a bit but still well offshore. During this period, Thursday night into the weekend, hazardous rip currents are likely along NJ beaches so please use caution.  The tropics remain favorable for development in the Cape Verde to E Caribbean regions. We’ll have to watch anything that forms as we close out the next few weeks of peak hurricane season. For now there are no immediate threats to NJ.

Monday (Sept 16) high temperatures should range from mid-70s to near-80 for most areas. WCNJ and SWNJ could reach into the lower-80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Sept 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NE (breezier near the ocean). Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Sept 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E/NE (breezier near the ocean). Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Sept 19) high temperatures should again reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E/NE (breezier near the ocean). Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. WCNJ/SWNJ could take a run into the lower-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with some returning humidity but nothing too bad. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates warm and sunny conditions. Most areas should reach the low-to-mid 80s for afternoon high temperatures. Areas like WCNJ and SWNJ could reach into the upper-80s. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most areas. Great local summer conditions IMO. A cold front should then return us to comfortable and pleasant conditions to start next week.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™