Weekend Outlook (Feb 15-17)

Discussion: The three signals have all trended less snowy. All three of them. If you like snow then you should just stop reading and check back in a few days to see if the third signal trended snowier. The first signal on Saturday has trended S with only extreme SNJ possibly seeing light mixed wintry precip. The ground should be above freezing so most accumulation will struggle. The Sunday signal has trended stronger and later in time into Monday. Therefore Sunday night into Monday looks like light statewide precipitation with a snow/rain line targeting CNJ. The mid-week system is still far enough away to commit to any early forecasts. But it has remained, verbatim from model guidance, a snow to rain event with SW flow pushing colder surface air out of the region again. More ice would be possible between the transition just like this past Tuesday. It has actually trended more aggressively with the warm air advection. Let’s see where we are on Sunday regarding that third signal. The one noticeable trend is the active train of systems through our region regardless of precipitation type. It would be hard to imagine not a single one of them producing at least something snowy. Otherwise the snow lovers will remain Salao. On the other hand it’s nice to hear the birds chirping and see the higher morning sun-angle each morning. Spring is only about one more third of winter away.

Friday (Feb 15) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with rain showers around. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to lower-30s.

Saturday (Feb 16) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most. Extreme SNJ might hang in the upper-30s. A wintry mix is possible across extreme SNJ but should struggle to accumulate. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should ranges from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Feb 17) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy to start until snow/rain moves into NNJ/SNJ by evening. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to low-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates a weak disturbance ending Monday morning with a snow/rain line somewhere through CNJ. A more organized system is still showing for mid-week. Verbatim from model guidance it’s still a snow-to-rain scenario like this past Tuesday. Likely less ice but possibly some. Nothing big snow-wise remains in sight for now. Let’s see how that mid-week system looks on Sunday. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC