October Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how October 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatologically-similar regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain and Newark Basin (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

Higher Elevation Discussion: This region should already be feeling fall, especially overnight. We should have a warmer and more humid first-third of October but the colder and drier air is coming by mid-month. For this initial warmer start we’re talking highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Once we turn the corner (~October 12-13) highs should struggle to break 60 with lows falling into the upper-30s/lower-40s quite regularly. The fist half of the month should feature more rain than the second half.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin Discussion: This region has had a few fallish nights already. We should have a warmer and more humid first-third of October but the colder and drier air is coming by mid-month. For this initial warmer start we’re talking highs in the upper-70s/lower-80s and lows in the 60s. Once we turn the corner (~October 12-13) highs should struggle to break 70 with lows falling into the 40s quite regularly. The fist half of the month should feature more rain than the second half.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

Coastal Region Discussion: This region has had a few fallish days and nights already. We should have a warmer and more humid first-third of October but the colder and drier air is coming by mid-month. For this initial warmer start we’re talking highs in the upper-70s/lower-80s (maybe even mid-80s this week) and lows in the 60s. Once we turn the corner (~October 12-13) highs should struggle to break 70 with lows falling into the 40s quite regularly. The fist half of the month should feature more rain than the second half.

In English: The common theme for all areas is a warmer, rainier and more-humid first-third of October followed by a colder and drier second two-thirds of October. The tropical season is starting to wind down but anything that comes northward out of the Caribbean Sea needs to be monitored for potential east coast impacts. This is a common tropical development area for October just like the Cape Verde/W Africa regions in August and September. If anything pops up you know I’ll be on it. Otherwise have a great October and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC