Transitional Conditions Continue (Sept 24-28)

Discussion: Upper-level 500mb heights will build into a ridge over the Northeast US this week. This should bring swampy south flow at the surface to New Jersey, especially as a small piece of remnant tropical energy feeds into the flow of the approaching warm sector/cold front. Monday looks ok aside from some SNJ light rain. Tuesday looks like a washout followed by unsettled conditions Wednesday through Friday afternoon. I’m watching Wednesday for thunderstorms and we might catch a break from it all on Thursday. But Friday evening through Sunday morning should then have the fall feel as an upper-level trough swings through and kisses New Jersey with lower dew points (lower humidity). By Sunday PM hours we should see the dew points start to build again for early next week. That should, in-theory, make Sunday cloudier than Saturday. Right now an even stronger shot of fall is modeled for midweek next week but let’s not get too far out. By this coming Friday we should have a much better idea of what Tropical Storm Kirk is going to do. For now it will steam across the tradewinds in the Atlantic Ocean from just SW of the Cape Verde region towards the Lesser Antilles (along 10N). It will face many obstacles including shear and the possibility of curving out to sea early. Overcoming those obstacles is possible and if so we could see a storm impacting the Lessers by Friday. Beyond that holds too much uncertainty. You will only see tropical update articles if I think Kirk has the potential to affect NJ.

Monday (Sept 24) high temperatures should range from low-60s to low-70s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should range from partly-cloudy to mostly-cloudy NNJ to SNJ. Rainfall is likely for at least SNJ and possibly some of CNJ. Winds should be breezy at times out of the E away from the ocean. Coastal areas will likely experience stiffer onshore flow (gusts to 25mph). Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Sept 25) high temperatures should range from lower-60s to near-80 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with statewide washout potential. Should feel tropical. Winds should remain breezy and transition from E to S. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Sept 26) high temperatures should range from mid-70s to mid-80s NNJ to SNJ. I wouldn’t be shocked if some interior SNJ/CNJ areas flirted with 90 under a sunny break (at least mid-to-upper 80s). Otherwise skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. The tropical feel should continue. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ. The passing cold front should knock the humidity down.

Thursday (Sept 27) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny with a small chance of isolated showers. Light-to-breezy winds should rock from N to E in direction. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s.

Friday (Sept 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most. Skies should be mostly-cloudy with scattered showers ending by afternoon. A sharp reduction in humidity is expected overnight into Saturday.

An early look at the weekend indicates dry skies. It should feel “crispy fall” from Saturday into at least Sunday morning. Humidity should then moderate some by PM hours Sunday. This would likely mean clear blue skies Saturday and some clouds on Sunday. Regardless, it would be a beautiful weekend for events like Chowderfest on Long Beach Island. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™