Warm Conditions Expected (July 13-15)

Discussion: Now that the remnants of tropical systems Chris and Beryl are moving further away to the NW, a ridge will fill into the E US. This will keep us on the warmer side this weekend, especially areas away from the ocean. A small area of high pressure should develop and pump SENJ with cooler temperatures than what is expected inland. The threat for rain, with possible thunderstorms, doesn’t really arrive until the early-AM hours of Sunday. We’ll have to watch any mesoscale convective system potential that comes around the top of the ridge and steers towards the Mid-Atlantic US (aligned with upper level ridge jet flow). Again, this would be between ~1-4am on Sunday. More thunderstorm potential exists for later Sunday afternoon/evening. Friday and Saturday look pretty good (lots of sun, some humidity but not like last week). The next big change of events likely comes Tuesday night as a cold front. This should take us from hot and humid to mild and crisp Wednesday-forward. The cold front might come with some rain and storms during Tuesday PM hours. I’ll try to narrow that time window down by Sunday.

Friday (July 13) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could creep into the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 60 statewide.

Saturday (July 14) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could again creep into the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be partly sunny. NWNJ should feel more humid than SENJ. Winds should be light out of the SW for most of NJ. SENJ should see more of a SE wind direction off the ocean which should help keep the humidity down for said region. It’s a perfect evening to come out to Fun(d) the Dream, our amazing cause—all you can eat/drink— dinner music party. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s for most.

Sunday (July 15) high temperatures should easily reach into the 80s statewide. Interior CNJ/SNJ has a good chance to break into the lower-90s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Thunderstorms are possible both during early-AM hours and later in the afternoon/evening. The AM activity should push through from NW to SE between ~2am and 5am. The PM stuff should be more confined to NWNJ. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to low-70s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates warm conditions sustaining through about Tuesday. We should then see a cold front passage Tuesday night into Wednesday which should produce rain and possibly thunderstorms. After that some very pleasant air should move in from Wednesday-forward. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC