Hot Weather Expected (Sept 22-24)

A warm, sunny and humid weekend is expected while we watch Hurricane Maria. Let’s break it down…

Friday (Sept 22) high temperatures should reach 80 for most with interior CNJ/SNJ possibly taking a run at mid-to-upper 80s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone reach 90. Skies should be partly sunny with an overall drier feel. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the north. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 50s.

Saturday (Sept 23) high temperatures should again reach into the 80s statewide. Interior areas could again take a run at 90. Skies should be partly sunny with humidity returning along and SE of the turnpike. Winds should remain northerly with maybe a hair more NE than N flow. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Sunday (Sept 24) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most with many locations breaking 90 away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas could be held in the upper-70s via marine influence. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

An early look at next week indicates warmer/hotter temperatures continuing into the Monday-Tuesday period. A front should be moving through before next weekend which should bring relief from the heat and humidity. Before that front lies the Maria risk which brings me to the…

Tropical Discussion: There are no real changes in my thoughts since my article last night. Hurricane Maria is a category 3 hurricane tracking towards the E Bahamas (Turks & Caicos area). Maria is expected to turn northward and pass between the east coast and Bermuda. Last night I was 70/30 on an out to sea/east coast hit. Tonight I’m 80/20. Key takeaway is that I am still not 100% sure of an east coast miss despite the increasing confidence. OBX would have the best chance of the hit with Florida, Georgia and South Carolina likely out of the woods. With that said, I wouldn’t let your guard down just yet for areas along and north of OBX. Positive trends have been happening though with the most likely Maria track just off OBX and even further off New Jersey. Tomorrow night I might be 90/10 with total dismissal of the Maria risk by Saturday. I’m just not there yet, should the wildcards begin play out (stronger Gulf ULL, stronger ridge, late trough, etc). If Maria were to hit New Jersey it would  likely be in the Tuesday night-Thursday morning period (Sept 26-28) with most impacts occurring Wednesday. Here’s to hoping the most we see is a surfer’s paradise. Have a great weekend. Stay cool and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC