Volatile Weekend Expected (Nov 18-20)

This weekend should start off very mild and transition to very cold. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: High pressure is currently moving through the SE US which will throw a mild air mass over our region Friday through Saturday night. A low pressure system will track through the N Great Lakes and SE Canda which will help rush in a longwave trough over our region immediately following the mild air. Sunday through Tuesday should have a very different feel as temperatures dip well-below average. Because NW flow will be stacked from the surface up through 500mb, there’s a good chance of at least lake-effect flurries for New Jersey Sunday into Monday. Surface temperatures of the Great Lakes (especially Huron, Erie and Ontario) are in the 50s which should create decent instability under the frigid air aloft which should help develop the lake-effect squalls across PA and NY towards NJ. NWNJ would be favored over SENJ for seeing snow fall but everyone is on the hook for possibly seeing some snow fly. Accumulations would be light if any at all. We should then moderate Wednesday into Thanksgiving, as another area of high pressure moves through the SE US, before reloading for another cold shot Thanksgiving Weekend.

Friday (Nov 18) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see localized parts of CNJ and SNJ flirt with 70. Skies should be mostly sunny and mild. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30s to 40s (NWNJ to SENJ).

Saturday (Nov 19) high temperatures should again reach into the 60s for most with some areas of CNJ and SNJ flirting with 70 (we’ll see). Skies should be partly cloudy and gradually increase in coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most as rain chances increase from evening through overnight hours.

Sunday (Nov 20) high temperature should fail to escape the 40s. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with light rain/snow flurries possible (moreso for NWNJ than SENJ but all could see some). Winds should be strong and gusty at times out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-20s/lower-30s statewide as lake-effect snow chances continue overnight into Monday.

An early look at next week indicates cold weather lasting through Tuesday (Monday night should be coldest of cold shot) followed by a period of moderation for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Thursday. Another cold shot should then move in for Thanksgiving Weekend. Long range model guidance indicates longer periods of cold settling in as we close out November and approach December. No major storm systems are on the horizon but something tells me it won’t be long until we’re tracking potential snow events. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Image Credit: Momentary Lapse by Greg Molyneux Photography

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC