Warm Week to Start (October 17-21)

This week should start off sunny with a transient period of well above average temperatures. The weekend might be in trouble though. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: The warm start to the week will be due to high pressure in the Atlantic providing assisting return flow to the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should pass through our region by Thursday but might get hung up from an approaching coastal low pressure system. Nicole will continue to head through the N Atlantic Ocean towards Iceland as an extraptropical cyclone. I’m noticing an upper-level piece of energy getting left behind from her however. This extra piece of upper-level energy will want to close-off and interact with a tropical surface low to the NE of the Bahamas. Also, another approaching shortwave from the northern jet stream is expected to deepen into a long wave trough and swing through the E US. With all of this said, we have some very complex dynamics however they all point towards at least some level of disturbance possible for this coming weekend. Whether that turns out to be an unorganized area of scattered showers or a more-organized synoptic event is yet TBD. We’ll have to monitor live observations this week and see how they are matching to model guidance. For now, weekend nuisance is possible.

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Monday (Oct 17) high temperatures should reach at least 80 in many places, especially interior CNJ/SNJ. NNJ elevations and immediate coastal regions might be held to the upper-70s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for NNJ elevations and likely just the 60s for everyone else in New Jersey.

Tuesday (Oct 18) high temperatures should reach into the 80s statewide. Wouldn’t be surprised at 85-90 for interior CNJ/SNJ. Immediate coastal regions and NNJ elevations might just reach/break 80. Regardless, the warmest day of the warm temperature wave. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should hang in the 60s statewide. Only the NNJ elevations would possibly fall into the 50s.

Wednesday (Oct 19) high temperatures should reach into the 80s again statewide. Overall, I expect maybe just 1-2 degrees cooler than Tuesday overall but still a very warm-feeling day. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most and possibly the upper-40s for NNJ elevations as the cold front approaches and begins moderating the transient warm snap.

Thursday (Oct 20) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s for NNJ elevations and lower-70s for everyone else in New Jersey. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should again fall into the 50s for most but possibly upper-40s for NNJ elevations.

Friday (Oct 21) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible. Winds should be breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide as rain possibly extends into the weekend.

An early look at the weekend indicates potential nuisance conditions. The intensity of rain and wind will all depend on if the dynamics can wrap up into an organized coastal low or stay unorganized. That would mean the difference between moderate rain and wind vs. minor rain and wind. Let’s revisit this in a few days when model guidance is in short-range and live obvservations come into play. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC