Some Relief is on the Way (Aug 15-19)

The week should start hot and muggy but give way to cooler and drier conditions at least heading into the weekend. Storm possibilities exist between. Let’s break it down…

Disco: A low pressure system should track from just S of the Great Lakes into New England between now and Wednesday morning. That should first push a warm front through overnight tonight followed by a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Today is not as bad as our prior heat and humidity but I expect that to return tomorrow in the warm sector of the synoptic low pressure system, especially with the assistance of the stationary Bermuda high’s southerly flow. Once the cold front is through sometime on Wednesday, we’ll return to more realistic temperatures for this time of year heading into the weekend. The cold front will be moving slow from NW to SE so might not bring relief to SENJ until later Wednesday evening, possibly even Thursday morning. NWNJ and parts between will see relief as early as Wednesday. This gives us rain and storm opportunities overnight tonight along the warm front, on Tuesday ahead of he cold front and on Thursday AM as it all clears out. We’ll then see the return of elevated humidity Friday heading into the weekend. It’s still a bit early to discuss weekend specifics but I’ll have a much better handle on that come Wednesday evening.

Monday (Aug 15) high temperatures should hover in the upper-80s/lower-90s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-60s for NNJ elevations and 70s for the rest of New Jersey. Rain and thunderstorms are possible along the warm front heading into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday (Aug 16) high temperatures should range from the mid-80s for NNJ elevations and coastal regions to the lower-90s away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly cloudy with rain and thunderstorms possible, some severe. Points NW are favored for severe criteria than points SE but everyone is on the hook for rain and at least a few boomers from late morning through the afternoon and into the evening. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S leading into the storms. Overnight lows should fall into the 70s statewide with the closely approaching cold front to our NW.

Wednesday (Aug 17) high temperatures should reach the 80s statewide. SNJ could hold onto temperatures closer to 90 given the slower moving cold front. Same with humidity. By Wednesday night, the cold front should be through all of NJ bringing relief for all. We’re not talking cold but low-80s with less humidity is going to feel so much better than what we’ve become used to over the last week. Skies should be partly sunny for most with remnant rain and storm chances possible along the cold front in CNJ/SNJ if slower to depart. That could mean isolated-to-scattered rain and storms overnight. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-60s for NNJ elevations and 60s for mostly everyone else. Only the SNJ coast could possibly stay above 70 overnight.

Thursday (Aug 18) high temperatures should range in the 80s (lower-80s along the coast and mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean). After clearing remnant AM showers, skies should be at least partly sunny with reduced humidity. Not NO humidity but reduced. Again, this should feel amazing after the recent conditions. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Friday (Aug 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s statewide. Interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt with breaking 90. Skies should be partly sunny with elevated humidity. We’re not heading back to how hot and humid it was but we’ll certainly take a few steps back. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Marine Forecast: Ocean surface temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 70s except for some up-welling near Atlantic City due to SW winds. For that reason, a small part of coastal Atlantic County/S Ocean County dipped into the 60s but should return to the mid-70s very soon. Wave heights should increase with the frontal passage on Tuesday-Wednesday to 3-6/4-7 feet but the rest of the week surrounding that period should see wave heights of 1-3/2-4 feet.

Tropical Forecast: We have a tropical wave departing W Africa, just S of the Cape Verde islands. I’ll be watching this for development and track this week. Should it become a named storm, it will be Fiona. We’re a long way from that though. Let’s see if it can better organize in the next few days. Otherwise, the tropics are quiet despite extremely warm E Atlantic waters.

Stargazing Forecast: I saw a few meteor shower reports over the weekend despite the hazy skies. The humidity might have helped illuminate their trails. We have a full moon this week on Thursday and therefore a mostly full moon for most of the week. This should cramp the style of stargazing but could yield some pretty cool cloud pics at night, especially any cumulonimbus structures. If you capture that, please send a photo in. It’s one of my favorite mid-summer night scenes.

An early look at the weekend indicates cooler temperatures in the low-80s but the jury is still out on whether we’ll see unsettled conditions or not. Let’s revisit that mid-week. Have a great week, stay cool, remain hydrateded and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC