4th of July Outlook

Discussion: Sorry I am just getting to the weekend update, or what’s left of it. Life has been busy but the most recent outlook seemed to have covered through yesterday just fine. This outlook will cover through Wednesday. The most influential driver of the weather pattern this coming week will be a weak high near Bermuda feeding a weak ridge for the E US. It’s not a strong Bermuda high/death ridge where heat records are in jeopardy. But it will be enough to establish a more traditional hot SW summer flow where many NJ areas push into the 90s. And with the higher humidity, the heat indices will likely feel closer to 100. Finally some weather conditions for the beach-goers and pool-siders who like it hot. This setup should remain in place through at least this coming Friday/Saturday before the atmosphere moderates and reloads for an even hotter look in the following weeks. Ocean temps are now in the lower-70s and should continue to climb towards an annual maximum of near-80 by August. This means that onshore flow no longer ruins outdoor activities with “too chilly” conditions. Instead, it can turn hot conditions to room temperature conditions, via sea breeze boundaries, for immediate coastal areas. It’s always nice to cross that bridge each year. Sea breeze fronts can also spark showers and thunderstorms (as meso fronts) so pay attention to this mechanism especially afternoon/early-evening hours. As far as the next few days go, today (Sunday) should be the stormiest, tomorrow (Monday) less stormy but still unsettled, and Tuesday (the 4^th of July) should be the least stormy (only iso activity). Humidity should be the common theme for all days.

Sunday Thunderstorm Discussion (Today): A flat boundary is draped from the plains towards New England (running W/SW to E/SE). It’s correlating with a weak low but very unorganized. Even still, this boundary (and associated upper flow) will act as a highway for thunderstorm systems to travel on and approach NJ from the W/SW. Today (Sunday) should feature the most intense thunderstorm complex. Timing is tricky. Isolated thunderstorms are possible all day today. But the more organized storms should push through NJ from W to E between about 3-10pm…3-6pm for WNJ. 6-10pm for ENJ. These are total storm possibility windows. Actual storms themselves will be much shorter lived but should come and go within the above timing windows. Storms could feature heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. I’ll be following and will update accordingly with radar posts on social media.

Outlook in English

Sunday (July 2) high temperatures should max in the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with a humid feel. Afternoon-evening thunderstorms are likely, possibly severe. See thunderstorm discussion above for more details. Winds should be light out of the S/SW overall, obviously gusty under or near thunderstorm cells. Overnight lows should stay near or slightly above 70 statewide.

Monday (July 3) high temperatures should range from about 85-90 statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. More showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, are likely but spotty and hit-or-miss. Less stormy than Sunday. Winds should be light out of the SW unless under/near a thunderstorm (gusty). Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.

Tuesday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Humidity should remain elevated. Afternoon-evening thunderstorms are possible but very isolated. Most firework show locations should be ok but just a few might see impacts. Will have to play the radar. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 for most NJ locations. Interior/NNJ elevations have the best chance to fall into the 60s.

Wednesday (July 5) high temperatures should reach into the 90s away from the ocean. Even coastal areas should reach well into the 80s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Elevated humidity will make it feel hotter than it is. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 for most NJ locations. Interior/NNJ elevations once again have the best chance to fall into the 60s.

An early look at the rest of next week indicates more heat and humidity with temps pushing into lower-90s away from the ocean (80s for coastal areas). A mixed bag of mostly sun, some clouds, and isolated showers/thunderstorms should continue with a tropical feel. I’ll be back on Wednesday to talk about the rest of this next coming week. Have a great 4^th of July. Please stay hydrated and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC