What to Expect this Winter 2023-2024
Forecast Discussion: This is not a winter forecast. I am not going to tell you your fortune in the form of snow inches or ice accumulation between now and late March. Just want to be crystal clear about that. I
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First Snowflakes of the Season for Many
Forecast Discussion: I had a feeling this was likely today, as mentioned in yesterday’s weekly outlook. The coldest air of the season yet is blowing across the southern Great Lakes, picking up moisture via evaporation, and carrying it E/SE to
First Shot of Winter Cold Arrives
Discussion: I’m seeing mostly an upper level (250mb) converging split flow pattern for the E US this week. At 500mb, most data suggests a trough to start this week that yields to a ridge for this weekend and then back
Thanksgiving Travel Plan
Discussion: Not much to deduce from the upper levels as most flow is zonal with alternating height profiles. If you are going to travel this week, it will be dry today through tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and
Warm Snap Ends
Discussion: We’re currently (Thursday) under the warmer influence of a ridge that will depart the E US by Saturday morning. Areas away from the ocean should dip into the 30s overnight tonight (Thursday night) with coastal areas holding closer to
Cold Start Mild Finish
Discussion: Models were correct about a week ago in that a ridge would develop now, out in the W/C US, and reciprocate a colder trough for the extreme EC which includes NJ. This should start us off colder this week
Colder Air Settles In
Discussion: Not seeing anything noteworthy in the upper levels for this week. A ridge will try to develop out W but not quite W US…more like W/C US. This will still reciprocate a trough for the E US (the very
Slightly Unsettled and Volatile
Discussion: The upper pattern appears zonal through this Friday. A few minor deviations in geopotential heights but otherwise, flat and zonal. A more meridional (dynamic) jet pattern should emerge this weekend as a ridge forms for the W US. This
A Gorgeous Fall Weekend
Discussion: The upper jet is in a split-stream pattern heading into this weekend. It should eventually even out into a single upper jet next week, first a bit zonal, but then with an axis out of the NW. This tells
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