Wet and Chilly

Discussion: A ridge will remain in place over the E US for most of this weekend. High pressure on the front of that ridge will park and meander over the NE US through Saturday before then tracking southward towards Bermuda Sunday. This is significant because while the high stays over the NE US, it will produce onshore flow (E winds off the ocean) for New Jersey. Since ocean surface temperatures offshore of NJ are around 54F, that creates a colder upstream air mass source which should continue to chill NJ out for the weekend. By Sunday, the high should be tracking southward which will turn the high pressure return flow (for NJ) from E to SE (still a cold air marine air mass source). For that reason, I don’t think any part of NJ reaches 70+ this weekend. 50s along the shore (and likely for NNJ elevations) and maybe just over 60 away from the ocean. The entire weekend looks cloudy with periods of rain beginning as early as Saturday afternoon (but by Saturday night) and ending Monday morning. Saturday PM to Monday AM (includes all of Sunday) rain will be based on the convergence of the oceanic high pressure return flow with the warm sector and frontal boundary approaching from the W (attached to a SE Canada low). Current model guidance is throwing down anything from ¼ to ¾ of an inch of total rainfall for this period. More rain is not far behind that Tuesday-forward but with warmer temps (70s/80s inland, 60s along coasts). I will try my best to provide a solid rain schedule on Monday’s weekly outlook. For now, it is too erratic and far out to commit to any timing…just that it looks like a warm and rainy week ahead after this chilly and rainy weekend. It is what it is my friends.

Friday (May 3) high temperatures are just over 60 in a few NJ locations far from the ocean (NWNJ/WCNJ) but for the most part NJ is stuck in the 50s due to marine influence. There are more clouds than sun with light-to-breezy winds out of the E (breezier along immediate coast). Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range for most NJ locations.  

Saturday (May 4) high temperatures should reach the 60-65 range for most NJ locations away from the ocean. ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas should hang in the 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Rain could move in as early as afternoon but likely by evening/overnight. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the E (breezier along immediate coast). Overnight lows should fall to a few degrees on either side of 50 statewide as rain chances persist into Sunday.

Sunday (May 5) high temperatures should range from 55-65 for most NJ locations (cooler side of that for elevations and coasts, milder side of that for interior CNJ/SNJ). Skies should remain cloudy with more rain likely. Winds should shift from E to SE but remain light-to-breezy. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as rain chances continue into Monday morning.

An early look at next week indicates the return to warmer temperatures (70s/80s inland, 60s along coast) but I’m seeing a decent amount of rain. I hope to have a solid rain schedule for the weekly outlook on Monday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™